Manitoban consumer confidence very strong reveals survey - First Central Mortgage update
In a Jory Capital/Winnipeg Free Press survey, presented here by First Central Mortgage Funding, on the economic outlook and job security in Manitoba shows Manitobans are just as positive as they were in March when previously polled.
86 per cent of Winnipeggers said they were either very or somewhat optimistic about their city’s economic prospects — the same number as in March.
And 78 per cent of rural and northern Manitobans said they felt the same way about their local community’s economic performance. While down two percentage points from March, the difference is well within the survey’s margin of error.
“So I don’t think you could make much out of that,” said Scott MacKay, president of Probe Research, the Winnipeg polling firm that conducts the surveys.
MacKay said the latest results prove March’s startling 15 per cent jump in optimism levels was the real deal.
He also predicted it would take something monumental — like massive job losses or a string of major plant closures or high-profile business failures — to shake that confidence.
“And I don’t think that’s going to happen,” he added.
Jory Capital president Patrick Cooney attributed the ongoing high level of optimism to Manitoba’s strong economic performance in comparison to most other parts of the country.
He said Manitoba and Saskatchewan have been the best-performing provincial economies during the current global recession, and that hasn’t been lost on Manitobans.
“These numbers are spectacular, given what’s going on in the global economy,” he said. “I think it’s good, good news all around, and let’s hope it continues.”
Consumer confidence levels are closely watched because people tend to spend more freely when they’re feeling optimistic about the local economy and their own financial prospects. And robust consumer spending helps drive the economy and maintain jobs.
The Jory/Free Press poll involved interviews with 1,000 Manitobans between June 8 and 25. The results are considered 95 per cent consistent, plus or minus 3.1 percentage points, with what the results would have been if the province’s entire population was surveyed.
The way Manitobans feel about their own household financial situation was also unchanged from March, with 20 per cent saying they are better off than before, 21 per cent saying they’re worse off, and nearly 60 per cent saying their situation hasn’t changed.
However, there was an increase in the number of Manitobans who expect their financial situation to improve over the next year — 36 per cent compared to 33 per cent in March.
And there was a large drop in the number who think they’ll be in worse financial shape a year from now — only six per cent compared to 11 per cent in March.
First Central Mortgage update reveals Winnipeg’s residential real estate market solid
First Central Mortgage Funding, July 10, 2009 - According to a Royal LePage Market Survey Forecast and House Price Survey released today, average house prices during the second quarter across most Canadian markets began to appreciate, recovering from the lows experienced during the winter months. Winnipeg’s residential real estate market continues to exhibit stability with prices up slightly in the second quarter compared to the first.
Winnipeg house prices in various categories and housing segments were up modestly in the second quarter compared to last year.
• prices in River Heights are up 0.4 per cent year-over-year for a standard two-storey home to $279,100;
• prices in the North West area of the city are up 6.5 per cent year-over-year for a standard two-storey to $264,000.
• prices for standard condominiums in Charleswood, rose 5.1 per cent, year-over-year to $143,000
According to the Royal LePage study the average housing price in Winnipeg is expected to decrease slightly from the current price of $205,380 to $203,900 for the 2009 average, however this will result in a 3.5 per cent increase over last year’s average.
Total inventory in Winnipeg is expected to increase from 4,379 to 10,965 units by the end of 2009.
First Central Mortgage profiles a 1983 TV commercial for Winnipeg Transit encouraging people to “Jump on a Bus”. This video is suitable for all viewers.
First Central Mortgage Funding Report: APRIL MLS® MARKET TAKES A BACKSEAT TO 2009 FLOOD
First Central posts news release from Winnipeg Realtors Association: WinnipegREALTORS® has been there before and will likely go through it again. As was the case in 1997, the MLS® market dipped noticeably from the same month the year before when there was no major flood to encounter and preoccupy yourself with as a resident of Winnipeg or outlying rural municipalities in the floodplain. It was confirmed by a provincial communications officer involved in releasing flood bulletins that the first two weeks of April involved daily news conferences and the City of Winnipeg were issuing news releases and holding news conferences too.
It really is a tale of two entirely different markets in April. If you look at the first half of the month, sales were down 29 per cent while dollar volume was off 25 per cent in comparison to the same time frame the year before. In direct contrast and a complete about face, the second half of April resulted in sales and dollar volume being down less than 2 per cent in comparison to the same period in 2008. Reinforcing the downturn in early April was the fact new listings entered on the MLS® market decreased 15 per cent the first half and were actually ahead by one listing the second half.
“Protecting one’s property or helping another owner save theirs will always take precedence over marketing your own home and that includes our REALTOR® members who were involved in many instances too with flood-related efforts,” said Deborah Goodfellow, President of WinnipegREALTORS®. “Winnipeggers in particular are grateful to former premier Duff Roblin for his vision and foresight years ago to build a floodway to protect citizens and their property from the devastation of a flood.” April MLS® unit sales are down 15% (1,150/1,355) while dollar volume is down 12% ($239.5 million/$272.6 million) in comparison to the same month last year. April 2009 still resulted in the second highest dollar volume month on record for April and even sales rank among the top ten best Aprils. Year-to-date MLS® sales have decreased 12% (3,239/3,689) while dollar volume is off 7% ($650.0 million/$701.4 million).
“Considering where we started in April and how we finished in the end, I believe the MLS® market in April had a healthy rebound which gives us hope going into May that our spring market has finally arrived,” said Goodfellow. “You also have to keep in mind we are comparing this April to the best April on record where sales this month had never before surpassed 1,300.” If the first Monday of May is any indication when WinnipegREALTORS® staff process many MLS® listings and sales after a weekend, the huge pile of listings and sales they were faced with compares very favourably with last year. I am sure helping this strong resurgence in activity along is mortgage rates that are unprecedented.
“When you look at mortgage rates today, they are lower than most of us have seen in our lifetime,” said Daryl Harris, Manitoba Director of Canadian Association of Accredited Mortgage Professionals. “The Bank of Canada has records going back to 1950 on average fixed-rate and long-term mortgage rates and the best rate was 5 per cent back in early 1950. Discounted five-year rates available today through Accredited Mortgage Professionals are under 4 per cent so it really is an opportune time to take advantage of such favourable mortgage finance conditions.”
For residential- detached sales, the most active segment of the MLS® market in April was the $150,000 to $199,999 price range with 24% of total sales. Next most active price range was $200,000 to $249,999 at 21%. 45% of the residential-detached sales in April were at or above list price.
Average days on market for residential-detached sales in April was 31 days, 1 day behind last month and 9 days off the fast pace set in April 2008.
